Long-term growth and water balance predictions for a mountain ash (Eucalyptus regnans) forest catchment subject to clear-felling and regeneration.

We used a physically based ecohydrological model to predict the water balance and growth responses of a mountain ash (Eucalyptus regnans F. Muell.) forest catchment to clear-felling and regeneration. The model, Topog-IRM, was applied to a 0.53 km(2) catchment for a 3-year pretreatment period, and a 20-year period following clear-felling and reseeding of 78% of the catchment area. Simulations were evaluated by comparing observed and predicted streamflows, rainfall interception and soil water values. The model faithfully simulated observed temporal patterns of overstory live stem carbon gain and produced a leaf area trajectory consistent with field observations. Cumulative throughfall was predicted within 1% of observations over an 18-year period. Over a 4-year period, predicted soil water storage in the upper 1.5 m of soil agreed well with field observations. There was fair correspondence between observed and predicted daily streamflows, and the model explained 76% of the variation in monthly flows. Over the 23-year simulation period, the model overpredicted cumulative streamflow by 6%. We argue that there is a useful role for physically based ecohydrological models in the management of mountain ash forest catchments that cannot be satisfied by simple empirical approaches.